Trade Journal

Short-term momentum play. BTC showing bullish 15-min candle structure with ascending lows. Quick scalp on the Up side at near even-money odds.

Hedging the prior BTC Up trade. If BTC reverses after the 3:30 candle, this Down bet on the next 15-min window catches the mean reversion. Paired with the Up trade for a straddle-like structure.

Pistons at home against the rebuilding Raptors. Detroit has been improving and at even money (50¢) this is a solid value play. The Raptors are among the worst teams in the league this season and are tanking for draft position.

Spurs at home with Victor Wembanyama. The Warriors are struggling on the road this season and San Antonio has been competitive at home. At 69¢ there is still upside, and the Wemby factor makes this a strong home favourite play.

Hornets have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA. At 61¢ for them to lose (Hawks win), this is good value. The Hawks at home with Trae Young should handle a depleted Charlotte roster missing key contributors.

OKC Thunder are one of the best teams in the league at home. SGA and the young core are dominant. The Suns are inconsistent on the road, and at 70¢ the Thunder offer reliable value as heavy home favourites.

Liverpool have been poor away from home this season. Sunderland at home is a tough fixture — the "NO" side at 46¢ offers significant edge. Liverpool only has 4 away wins all season. At 46¢ this is a 2:1 payout if Liverpool drops points, which happens ~55% of the time at away grounds.

Correlated play with the Liverpool NO trade. Sunderland are strong at home this season — unbeaten. Liverpool only has 4 away wins all season. At 21¢ this is a 5:1 payout if Sunderland wins, which happens ~33% of the time at home.

Despite ongoing tensions, an outright Israeli military strike on Iranian territory by end of February is unlikely. The ceasefire dynamics, US diplomatic pressure, and mutual deterrence all point towards continued restraint. At 85¢ for NO, this is a low-risk carry trade with ~18% annualised return.

Macro bearish thesis: tariff uncertainty, hot CPI print expectations, and bond market stress. The "Down" side at 25.7¢ pays nearly 4:1 if the market closes red. With elevated VIX and ongoing trade war escalation, a down day is more likely than the market is pricing.